by Daniel Kittell | Accounting News, Construction, Industry - Construction, News, Newsletter
Understanding how economic trends influence construction can provide valuable insights for businesses and professionals in the field. For instance, high interest rates and slower economic growth will put increasing pressure on construction and manufacturing this year. Here’s a comprehensive look at how the current economic landscape is likely to impact construction in 2024.
Inflation and Interest Rates
The economy is still experiencing inflation pressures from energy prices, wages, and consumer spending, which impacts project financing.
Additionally, with interest rates playing a pivotal role in construction financing, the Federal Reserve’s actions this year regarding cutting interest rates hold significant sway. Lower interest rates will stimulate borrowing for construction projects, reducing overall borrowing costs for businesses and clients. This creates incentives for investment in construction ventures, particularly in the residential sector.
Supply Chain
Late last year, construction companies were still facing supply chain issues, but construction firms can expect supply chain improvements as the year progresses, which will help reduce delays in construction projects. The pandemic changed communication methods between the construction industry and suppliers, with construction firms adopting communication technologies to streamline material ordering workflows. With access to more complete and speedy information, construction firms are empowered to keep projects on track.
Labor Market
The construction job sector experienced growth last year. However, construction job openings have decreased recently, even though wages have increased by 4.9%. This highlights the importance of competitive pay and innovative training programs to attract and retain employees.
Recession Worries
Higher employment and higher wages create more spending power and add to the supply and demand issues perpetuating a potential recession. With interest rates stalling and contributing to a decrease in project financing power, an economic recession is still top of mind for businesses. While signs at the moment are pointing to a soft landing, the construction industry should still be preparing for economic shifts.
Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The Israel-Hamas conflict heightens concerns about the possibility of broader tensions in the Middle East, which could potentially impact energy and other raw material prices. U.S. sanctions on Iran might exacerbate these issues, while ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China could contribute to inflationary pressures.
by Stephen Reed | Accounting News, News, Newsletter
After two years of rapid interest rate hikes, which sent mortgage and credit card rates soaring, investors and consumers are wondering when the Federal Reserve is planning to lower interest rates. In short, the Fed is looking for more positive signs from the economy, but rate cuts will likely happen in 2024. Read on to learn how soon this might happen.
Inflation and the Fed
In March 2022, the Federal Reserve initiated a series of rate hikes as a strategic measure to combat soaring inflation rates, a traditionally effective method used to curb consumer spending and mitigate price surges. Since then, the central bank has executed 11 rate hikes, which have significantly reduced the annual inflation rate to 3.1% in January, down from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. However, January’s figure was higher than economists’ projections – and persists above the Fed’s target of lowering inflation to 2%. Given January’s hot inflation data, deep rate cuts aren’t likely to happen soon.
When to Expect the First Cut
Because January’s number was higher than previously forecasted, economists are now projecting the Fed’s first cut will happen farther along in 2024 than they had earlier estimated. This means the Fed’s next meeting in March is unlikely to result in cuts, and some are saying the May meeting may even be too soon. Instead, most economists aren’t expecting the first rate cut until the Fed’s June 12 meeting.
What Does This Mean for Americans?
Borrowers likely won’t see changes to loan terms anytime soon. Credit card rates, auto loans, and other credit products that are based on the Fed’s benchmark rate will likely stay steady at or near their current levels until the first rate cut.
Mortgages are slightly different. When inflation growth is worse than expected, mortgage rates tend to increase. Therefore, we might see a rise in mortgage rates in the upcoming weeks, but ultimately stabilizing around 6% by year’s end.
What to Do with Your Money in the Meantime
Here are some steps you can take with your money while you wait for rates to drop.
Open a Certificate of Deposit
When the Federal Reserve reduces rates, annual percentage yields (APY) on savings accounts also decrease. However, interest rates on certificates of deposit (CDs) remain unchanged once the account is opened, ensuring a fixed rate regardless of any fluctuations in APYs.
Strengthen Your Credit Score
If you’ve been holding out for lower rates before applying for a mortgage or personal loan, it’s time to prepare. Lenders heavily weigh your credit score in the approval process to determine the interest rate you’ll receive. While a credit score of 620 is the starting point for a conventional mortgage, aiming for a score of at least 750 can help you qualify for the most favorable rates.
To be sure your credit score is primed for the best rates, make on-time payments of credit cards and loans in full; request higher credit limits in order to lower your credit utilization ratio; and hold off on applying for new lines of credit as the application could require a hard inquiry that hits your credit.
by Pete McAllister | Accounting News, Business Consulting, News
Amidst a strengthening labor market, rising economic activity, and a declining unemployment rate, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided last month to raise the federal funds rate – the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend Federal Reserve funds to other banks and credit unions overnight – by a quarter-point, from 1.75 to 2 percent. This is the second increase in 2018, and two more increases were suggested by year’s end.
To the average small business owner, the knee-jerk reaction might be a negative one. After all, interest rates do trickle down, affecting credit card balances, adjustable-rate mortgages, and variable loan rates. But the increase could potentially be good news for small businesses. Higher interest rates amid a strong economy mean more profitable deals for banks, which creates a greater motive to offer more financing options and approve loan requests.
Another potential long-term benefit to higher interest rates is a better cash flow. Because inflation is typically a motivator for rate increases, the cost of goods and services tend to escalate, effectively allowing small businesses to raise prices, improve margins, and enjoy more breathing room.
As with any change in the economy, however, the impact on small businesses could have negative consequences as well. One potential consequence of higher interest rates is the effect on consumerism. Because consumers with credit card debt will be paying higher interest rate charges, they’ll have less disposable income to spend, which could hinder sales and growth of small businesses. Additionally, companies that need to borrow money for growth can potentially incur a higher cost of capital when interest rates go up. This can affect new loans as well as existing loans with floating rates.
Because interest rates have been hovering near zero for the past several years in order to spur the economy, a move in the needle was inevitable, and we are unlikely to see rates that low again anytime soon. With the Federal Reserve’s suggestion of additional increases to come, small businesses that are contemplating applying for loans might want to do so sooner rather than later.
by Stephen Reed | News, Tax Planning - Individual
Although the market rarely remains consistent for very long, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter-point recently will come as a shock to many consumer wallets. Considering short-term effects, consumers will see a jump for annual credit card interest rates from 16.5% to 16.75%, as well as a rise in auto and home equity loans, and mortgage rates. Unfortunately though, the short-term effects may not be the cause for concern for consumers; experts seem to think that all signs are pointing to a rise in rates two more times before the year is out, which means the long-term effects could be more detrimental to your wallet. Below is an outline for how exactly the continuing rise in rates could affect your pockets.
Credit Cards
Although the quarter-point increase seems rather small, and rates are still low historically, some may see the effect more than others. If you follow what experts suggest and pay off your entire credit card bill each month, you will obviously be unaffected by any rate changes; however, if you are among the 40% of consumers who don’t pay off their entire bill each month, then you will end up paying an average of $42 more annually, and that number could jump to $85 annually if the Feds increase rates again as is projected.
Auto Loans
While auto loans will certainly see a slight increase from the raise in rates, consumers should not be too worried. Because borrowing rates for the auto industry are fairly low, consumers should only see about a $3 monthly increase on an average $25,000 auto loan.
Mortgages
Even though mortgage rates are not necessarily affected by changes in short-term interest rates, we are still seeing a rise in rates due to higher bond yields. Part of this is due to economic strengthening and potential increases in government borrowing under President Trump, and part is due to the Fed’s objective to tighten monetary policy. Before the election, rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage were at 3.75% compared to where they currently sit at 4.25%. And while the recent rise in interest rates may not be the cause, mortgages will continue to be more costly in the months ahead due to higher bond yields and tighter monetary policy, something that consumers will certainly feel since mortgages are so much larger than most other loans. It may take some time for mortgage rates to increase, but those using home equity lines of credit may feel the effects sooner, adding an average of $6.25 to monthly interest payments on a standard home equity balance.
So, no matter your stage in life, the chances are you will find yourself coughing up a few extra dollars in the coming months, whether that’s on your credit card bill, auto loan, mortgage, or a combination of the three.
